11 January 2024

Just a few days in the past I used to be lamenting that we weren’t having a snowy winter, neither snow nor snowy owls. Properly, watch out what you ask for! A number of days of bitter chilly are coming to Pittsburgh subsequent week. If Lake Erie freezes, arctic gulls will fly south to search out open water on the rivers. The photograph above exhibits some chilly and joyful birders uncommon gulls on the Level in January 2015.

So what are the probabilities this can occur subsequent week?

As of this morning, the forecasted low temperature for daybreak on Wednesday 17 January is 9°F. This map for subsequent Monday certain appears to be like like we’re in a “polar vortex.” Chilly, proper?

However will it’s chilly lengthy sufficient to freeze Lake Erie and ship the gulls south? Most likely not. The japanese Nice Lakes ice map as of yesterday, 10 Jan 2024, exhibits practically 100% open water (white).

There’s not even a touch of ice (blue) on most of Lake Erie and the Nice Lakes ice-to-date graph for winter 2023-24 signifies that ice is at a close to file low. There’s plenty of cooling off to do earlier than the lakes will freeze.

So subsequent week I’ll should put on my Minnesota gear to go outdoor however it’s unlikely there shall be any uncommon birds on the market. Will I need to exit in 9°F anyway? I’ll have to attend and see.

(credit are within the cations)