Industrial compound feed manufacturing within the EU remained steady in 2021. Wanting ahead, the unfold of animal illnesses and the persevering with international grain market rally fuelled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is predicted to cut back compound feed demand in 2022 by 4–5 Mio tons.

EU compound feed manufacturing (EU27) for farmed animals in 2021 is estimated at 150,2 Mio t., a rise of 0.03 % in comparison with 2020, based on information supplied by FEFAC members. Aside from the pig feed sector, all different sectors managed to stabilize/or barely improve their manufacturing regardless of the persevering with Covid-19 pandemic, international grain market rally, provide chain disruptions and unfold of animal illnesses in 2021.

Following the 2021 EU vital pigmeat scenario, dealing with challenges of lowered meat demand in key export markets, excessive prices for feed grains, the impression of African Swine Fever and considerably elevated 2020 manufacturing, the pig feed manufacturing decreased by -1.5% in 2021. 

The EU poultry feed sector managed to extend its manufacturing by 1.1% in comparison with the earlier 12 months, recovering partially from losses linked to Covid lockdown measures (HORECA) in 2020. Eire, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Finland and Romania loved progress of greater than 5% whereas a lower was reported in Germany, France, Belgium, Sweden, Poland and Lithuania primarily as a consequence of excessive prices of uncooked supplies (farmers not beginning a brand new cycle/rotation), Avian Influenza and flat or lowered retail costs for eggs impacting the poultry sector.

Cattle feed manufacturing barely elevated by 0.2% in comparison with the earlier 12 months as a consequence of the next improve in manufacturing in Eire, Bulgaria and Austria (+6%) following a extreme drought impacting grass progress.

Market outlook for 2022

Wanting on the market outlook for 2022, the EU pig and poultry sector are anticipated to cut back their actions as a result of excessive price of feed supplies, decrease market demand and increasing Avian Influenza outbreaks in a number of international locations. Therefore, FEFAC members’ estimates lower by -4.2% for pig feed and -3% for poultry feed. The cattle feed manufacturing is predicted to lower by -1.6%. General, the commercial compound feed manufacturing is estimated to lower by -2.9% (i.e. 4.3 Mio tonnes) in comparison with 2021. Nonetheless, market uncertainties stay very excessive as a consequence of ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine. The quick lack of feed maize, sunflower meal and different feed supplies from Ukraine and Russia may solely be partially compensated by elevated feed imports, primarily from the US and Canada. Key logistical challenges are persisting on the way to transfer present grain shares out of Ukraine and can proceed to impression market availability within the new Advertising 12 months.

Key market drivers which may weigh in towards demand for compound feed in 2022:
– the continued unfold of animal illnesses (AI & ASF);
– financial uncertainties primarily linked to warfare within the Ukraine;
– farm-gate costs for animal merchandise beneath prices worth;
– different EU coverage choices (strain on reducing GHG and different emissions, welfare coverage & deforestation-free provide chains);
– disruptions in provide chain as a consequence of Covid (restrictions in China impacting export of components and different feed substances).

Supply: FEFAC