February was filled with very dynamic adjustments for the hog market in Poland. After all, the state of affairs was primarily influenced by the state of affairs in Germany. In the beginning of final month, the value on the German VEZG market began to extend, first by 10 cents, and after per week it elevated by one other 5 cents. Following per week of calm, the value rose once more and eventually, we ended February at €2.20 per kg carcass (57% lean content material), i.e. PLN 9.47. In only one month, the German market worth elevated by 10% in comparison with the worth from the top of January: this can be a enormous change!

How has our western neighbor’s state of affairs affected the Polish market? The utmost costs in the intervening time (starting of March) are roughly PLN 9.20-9.40 per kg at school E (carcass with 56% lean content material), however we now have to take a look at the common values, i.e. roughly PLN 9.29. In comparison with the top of January (PLN 8.58), this is a rise of simply over 8%. It’s hanging to see a worth improve that’s decrease than our western neighbors (10%). Why such a distinction? For my part, slaughterhouses see that additional will increase is not going to translate into elevated slaughter and that, in any case, their margins are very low. On prime of all this, there’s stress from commerce, which is prepared to import cheaper pork from EU international locations that determine to liquidate a part of the slaughter at aggressive costs.

Together with rising ending pig costs, there’s additionally a rise in weaned piglet costs, that are additionally turning into costlier as a result of very low provide. Following the final pig market disaster in 2022, the sow herd within the EU has declined considerably, leading to a low provide of piglets on the market for ending. For apparent causes, this results in larger costs for these animals, and the one factor presently encouraging farmers to take dangers in buying is the very low cereal costs, which makes it simpler to attain profitability.

So, how will the market form up this March?

To reply this query, one should first perceive what’s driving the present worth will increase. It’s straightforward to imagine that it’s as a result of upcoming Easter holidays. This era is characterised by an elevated demand for meat. After the increase earlier than Christmas, which led to a sudden inflow of pigs mixed with mediocre commerce, the impact was fairly substantial reductions and the warehouses had been full… there isn’t a hint of this left.

Presently, slaughterhouses are even hiring subcontractors to have the ability to meet their slaughter schedule as a lot as potential. Nonetheless, we’re beginning to see the market settle down. This doesn’t imply that demand for pork is falling, however (I consider) we now have reached an equilibrium the place slaughterhouses are prepared to pay the suitable charges, the farmer is prepared to just accept them, and the commerce is prepared to pay. If that is so, then we should always see a quiet market throughout Easter, which is in early April.

So, will the value begin taking place after this era?

It is determined by the climate as a result of we’re beginning to prepare for barbecue season. After all, so much is determined by the climate, however in recent times it has been conducive to gatherings round a campfire or barbecue. If this had been to be the case, the value shouldn’t change considerably, though personally, I count on some will increase. Will or not it’s so? Time will inform!

Nonetheless, the reality is that the breeding sow commerce is presently booming. Many farmers who beforehand deserted animal manufacturing are contemplating returning to the enterprise, which is after all associated to the costs of agricultural merchandise, which have been at an more and more decrease stage since August. With a scarcity of weaned piglets in the marketplace, some individuals determine to return to piglet manufacturing, which signifies that the demand for gilts is kind of excessive, and that is excellent news for many who are on this enterprise, as a result of the product is reducing, in accordance with my very own expertise.