19 January 2024

11 minute learn

China’s December pork imports fall sharply from year-ago

China imported 90,000 MT of pork throughout December, unchanged from November however 54.3% lower than final 12 months. For 2023, China imported 1.55 MMT of pork, down 11.7% from the earlier 12 months.

US Cattle slaughter slowly rebounding amid wintry climate

Wednesday’s estimated cattle slaughter improved to 118,000 head, although that was nonetheless 3,712 head under final 12 months. The week-to-date tally stood at 341,000 head, up from final week however nonetheless nicely behind final 12 months. Most beef crops are anticipated to run sizable Saturday kills to make up for vacation and weather-related downtime. As slaughter regulates, packer demand for money cattle is predicted to enhance and assist money cattle costs.

China’s pork manufacturing reaches document in 2023

China produced a document 57.94 MMT of pork in 2023, official information confirmed, after farmers ramped up slaughter over the past quarter to chop losses amid an oversupply of pigs. Annual pork output expanded 4.6% from the earlier 12 months, as slaughter rose 3.8% to 726.62 million head. Pork manufacturing within the fourth quarter totaled 14.93 MMT, up 7% from the identical interval in 2022. China’s beef output rose 4.8% to 7.53 MMT, poultry meat manufacturing rose 4.9% to 25.63 MMT and mutton elevated 1.3% to five.31 MMT in 2023.

Philippines bans poultry imports from California, Ohio because of HPAI

The Philippines’ ag ministry has banned poultry imports from California and Ohio due to a number of outbreaks there of extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The ban covers imports of domesticated and wild birds, together with poultry meat and eggs, the ministry mentioned. All shipments coming from California and Ohio which can be already in transit, loaded or accepted at Philippine ports earlier than Jan. 15 will probably be allowed entry in the event that they had been slaughtered two weeks earlier than the outbreak started. In 2023, the Philippines imported 166,356 MMT of poultry merchandise value $175.8 million from the US, authorities information confirmed.

As People eat extra cheese and butter, US farmers are scrambling to get their cows to provide fattier milk

The efforts embrace utilizing totally different cow breeds and feed mixes and ensuring animals are comfy and don’t get too scorching. The result’s that the common quantity of butterfat in milk produced by US dairy herds has climbed previous 4% and above the earlier document set throughout World Struggle II. Wall Road Journal.

In November, US pork exports reached new information in key markets

The surge in US pork exports is pushed by excellent performances in Mexico, Central America, and Colombia. These figures are primarily based on information from USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Pork exports to Mexico, a number one market, reached a worth document in November, marking a 5% enhance from the earlier 12 months. Export quantity additionally surged by 14%, totaling 100,313 metric tons, making it the second-largest on document, with solely October 2023 surpassing it.

Central America noticed huge progress in pork exports in November, with important will increase in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Shipments to the area surged by 35% in comparison with the earlier 12 months, reaching 16,565 metric tons, setting month-to-month information.

South Korea additionally skilled substantial progress in pork exports in November, up by 19% in comparison with the earlier 12 months, with shipments totaling 17,406 metric tons.

Oceania witnessed a notable rebound in pork exports all through 2023, and this pattern continued in November, with shipments practically tripling in comparison with the earlier 12 months, reaching 6,414 metric tons, which is a formidable 186% enhance.

When it comes to manufacturing, exports accounted for 30.1% of complete pork manufacturing in November, with muscle cuts making up 26.2%. Each figures elevated by roughly 1 share level in comparison with the earlier 12 months.

USDA report: livestock and poultry, world markets and commerce

Competitors Tightens for Main Pork Exporter

The revised 2024 forecast of pork shipments by US and EU, the world’s high two exporters, are practically on par for the primary time since 2015. US and EU exports for 2024 are each revised decrease in comparison with the October forecast. Nonetheless, the hole is narrowed for these rivals as US shipments are revised just one p.c decrease whereas EU shipments are revised 3 p.c decrease. The downward revisions for US and EU exports are pushed by anticipated weaker shipments to China, the world’s largest importer.

Continued weak demand by China reduces export alternatives, notably for the EU. Though US export volumes to China stay a major a part of complete exports, US share of exports to China is lower than for the EU. In 2022, US shipments to China accounted for 10 p.c of complete exports, whereas EU shipments to China accounted for 27 p.c of complete exports. As well as, EU manufacturing has declined in recent times and is revised 2 p.c decrease in 2024, tightening exportable provides.

Forecast progress in US manufacturing and decrease costs are anticipated to underpin US exports competitiveness in a number of markets.

Beef

World beef manufacturing for 2024 is revised 1 p.c upward from the October forecast to 59.5 million tons as upward revisions for the US and Australia greater than offset declines for Argentina and the EU. Nonetheless, US manufacturing continues to be anticipated to say no 12 months on 12 months. Australia continues herd liquidation and processors have introduced extra shifts supporting increased slaughter ranges which is able to offset barely decrease weights. Argentina manufacturing is revised decrease on tighter cattle provides following a smaller calf crop and drought-induced liquidation in 2023. EU manufacturing is revised down on decrease slaughter amid multi-year herd contraction and sluggish client demand. The manufacturing forecast for Brazil is unchanged.

World beef exports for 2024 are revised 1 p.c increased from the October forecast to 12.1 million tons. Shipments by Brazil and Australia are revised upward on ample manufacturing and agency international demand. Australia and Brazil, the world’s main exporters, will profit from sturdy US import demand spurred by declining home manufacturing. Nonetheless, Brazil shipments will probably be constrained by US beef import quotas whereas Australia shipments are limitless and duty-free as a result of United States- Australia Free Commerce Settlement. The forecast for China demand is barely improved regardless of slower anticipated financial progress.

Pork

World pork manufacturing for 2024 is revised down 1 p.c from the October forecast to 114.2 million tons on decrease output in China, the EU, and Brazil. China manufacturing is revised decrease as continued weak demand discourages increasing home manufacturing. EU manufacturing is revised decrease on continued regulatory strain and altering client preferences. Brazil manufacturing is revised decrease as imports from high market China proceed to weaken. US manufacturing is just about unchanged with declines within the farrowings offset by elevated pigs per litter. • World pork exports for 2024 are lowered 2 p.c from the October forecast to 10.2 million tons because the EU, United States, and Brazil more and more compete for decrease China imports. Though US exports stay robust to many core markets, together with Mexico and Canada, mixture exports are revised decrease towards weak import demand from Japan and China. United Kingdom exports are additionally revised decrease on declining demand from the European Union.

Rooster Meat

World hen meat manufacturing for 2024 is just about unchanged from the October forecast at 103.3 million tons. A downward revision in US manufacturing is generally offset by upward revisions for the EU and UK. The manufacturing forecasts for Brazil and China stay unchanged. • World hen meat exports for 2024 are revised 1 p.c decrease from the October forecast to 13.9 million tons as reductions in Brazil and US shipments are usually not offset by minor beneficial properties from different main exporters. Weaker than anticipated demand from Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Japan will primarily influence Brazil, the world’s main exporter. Regardless of the downward revision in Brazil exports, volumes are nonetheless anticipated to succeed in a document degree and proceed to account for a rising portion of world commerce. US exports are revised decrease on softer Cuba and Angola demand stemming from macroeconomic challenges.

China’s 2023 meat imports slip under year-ago

China imported 566,000 MT of meat throughout December, up 1.6% from November however practically 19% under year-ago. For 2023, China imports 7.38 MMT of meat, down 0.3% from the earlier 12 months.

Eggs getting dearer at US grocery shops as HPAI strikes trade once more

The value of eggs shot up 8.9% from November, marking the best month-to-month enhance since January of final 12 months as extremely pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks impacted the trade. For now, economists consider this newest HPAI outbreak gained’t be as extreme because the one in 2022 that devastated flocks and despatched egg costs sky-high – at one level rising 70% yearly. Of be aware: For the 12 months that resulted in December, egg costs had been down 23.8%.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (1/12) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.5675. The weekly common for Grade AA is $2.5595 (-0.0893). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4450 and 40# blocks at $1.5625. The weekly common for barrels is $1.4600 (+0.0400) and blocks, $1.5280 (+0.0717). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1850. The weekly common for Grade A is $1.1910 (+0.0147). DRY WHEY: Further grade dry whey closed at $0.4300. The weekly common for dry whey is $0.4270 (+0.0257).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Retail and bulk butter calls for are largely regular. Nonetheless, some lighter home demand is reported within the western area as just a few manufactures point out demand is under expectations. Persistently weak meals service demand is famous within the east area. Within the central area, meals service demand is predicted to take a brief hit from latest winter storms. Cream is available. Sturdy to regular manufacturing schedules are reported. Some butter makers are turning down cream presents because of at present being at capability. Winter climate precipitated some hauling disruptions at some crops within the central area. Bulk butter overages vary from 1 to eight cents above market, throughout all areas.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: On account of storm exercise in lots of jap states, many milk hundreds supposed for Class III processors had been diverted into Class I channels. Processors be aware manufacturing schedules are regular to lighter commensurate with milk availability. Contacts within the Northeast relay elevated export demand. Spot milk availability stays robust within the Central area, and costs are being reported as little as $7 under Class III. Some crops be aware downtime for both upkeep or inspection. Cheesemakers be aware regular demand and cozy stock ranges. Winter climate is predicted so as to add obstacles for each milk and cheese transport. Within the West, retail cheese demand is famous to be lighter. Foodservice demand is following an identical downward pattern. Contacts be aware robust Class III demand has made manufacturing schedules regular to stronger. Contacts within the West additionally report elevated worldwide buying curiosity.

FLUID MILK: Farm degree milk manufacturing is regular to stronger throughout the US. Within the Northeast, farm degree milk manufacturing continues to develop week over week. On account of winter climate, contacts famous some spot milk hundreds supposed for Class III processing had been redirected into Class I channels at first of the week. Within the Midwest, winter climate can be proving to be an impediment to some dairy operations. Milk volumes can be found for spot purchases, which plant managers attribute to downtime moderately than farm degree milk output progress. Spot milk costs had been reported from $7 to $0.50 below Class III. Contacts famous Class I orders throughout this week had been stronger than in earlier years. Butter processors relay having to show away cream presents as they’re approaching capability. In California and Arizona, milk output is famous to be regular to stronger. In California, milk manufacturing will increase are at or above anticipated ranges, and spot milk hundreds had been reported as little as $6 below Class IV. Milk manufacturing is regular in New Mexico, the place winter climate affected transportation this week. In Idaho, Colorado, and Utah, contacts be aware milk manufacturing is regular. In Washington and Oregon, milk outputs are regular to stronger, and milk handlers be aware week over week variations have elevated from the top of 2023 to now.

DRY PRODUCTS: Within the Central area, low/medium warmth nonfat dry milk (NDM) market exercise was regular to stronger, with costs persevering with to land across the $1.20/lb mark. Contacts be aware demand from Mexico has picked up once more. Contacts anticipate winter climate to be an impediment for shifting condensed skim hundreds to drying services. Within the West, NDM hundreds are usually out there for spot purchasers. Average export demand is famous. NDM manufacturing schedules have been regular, although some processors be aware routine upkeep. Liquid buttermilk availability has grown within the East, Central, and Western areas as churning exercise has picked up. Within the Central and East areas, dry buttermilk inventories stay tight as NDM has taken major manufacturing focus. Dry complete milk processing stays restricted week over week, and inventories are famous to be tight. Dry whey shopping for curiosity is mild within the East, however regular within the Central and Western areas. Central processors be aware the firmness of the whey protein focus market may point out manufacturing shifts away from dry whey. Equally, whey protein focus 34% inventories have tightened as processors give attention to drying whey protein focus 80% and whey protein isolate. Home demand for lactose elevated this week. Contacts be aware lactose assembly stringent necessities is troublesome to acquire, with some processors noting they’ve restricted to no spot availability by Q1. Contacts share acid casein demand has picked up. Rennet casein manufacturing has resumed following the winter holidays.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Natural Dairy Information Assortment Act, HR 6937, was launched within the US Home of Representatives lately. The reported purpose of this invoice is to extend understanding of the prices related to producing natural milk whereas enhancing USDA information assortment. This invoice would direct the USDA to gather and publish information relating to the price of natural feedstuffs produced domestically or imported. It might direct NASS to collect information and report month-to-month quantities natural dairy farmers are receiving for natural milk. This invoice would additionally direct a part of the USDA to publish information illustrating the price of manufacturing by state, the amount of natural milk produced by area, and pay costs. Nationwide Natural Grain Feedstuff commerce exercise was mild on the spot market with reasonable demand. Bids for natural feed are largely $7.00 – $7.75 delivered elevator. Natural feed soybean bids stay largely unchanged. The majority of commerce exercise this era was ahead contracts. In comparison with the identical interval final 12 months, natural feed corn bought $2.97 decrease delivered elevator and natural feed soybeans bought $8.57 decrease.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Commercial totals had been divided this week, as natural dairy advert numbers practically doubled following the primary full week of the 12 months, whereas standard advert totals decreased 14 p.c, in toto. Typical ice cream in 48-to-64-ounce containers was probably the most marketed dairy merchandise this week, whereas standard shredded cheese in six-to-eight-ounce packages was the second-most marketed dairy merchandise. Half-gallon milk stays probably the most marketed natural dairy merchandise this week.