Based mostly on the statistics, South Africa narrowly escaped a recession, due to actual gross home product growing by 0,1% within the fourth quarter of 2023, following a 0,2% contraction within the third quarter of 2023. 12 months-on-year, the financial system grew by 0,6%, which is slower than final 12 months’s charge of 1,9%.

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Six industries recorded progress within the fourth quarter. These industries contributed between 0% and 0,2% to GDP progress.

• Mining business grew by 2,4%, e
• Electrical energy, fuel and water by 2,3%,
• Transport and communications by 2,9%,
• Finance, actual property and enterprise companies by 0,6%,
• Private companies by 0,9%,
• Manufacturing by 0,2%.

4 industries shrunk:

• Agriculture, forestry and fisheries by 9,7%,
• Development by 1,4%,
• Commerce, catering and lodging by 2,9%,
• Normal authorities companies by 0,6%.

The contribution of agriculture, forestry and fisheries to the GDP declined by 2%, that of commerce, catering and lodging by 0,3%, and development and common authorities companies supplied zero in direction of GDP progress.

The agriculture, forestry and fisheries business recorded a damaging progress of 14,3% within the first quarter of 2023, 3,7% progress within the second quarter, and damaging progress of 11,7% within the third quarter. 12 months-on-year, the business recorded damaging progress of 12,2%.

Dawie Maree, head of agriculture data and advertising at FNB South Africa, stated this was the primary time the business recorded damaging year-on-year progress since 2019. In 2019, the business shrank by 6,5%, whereas it recorded progress of 17,8% in 2020, 7,4% in 2021, and 0,9% in 2022.

Maree stated damaging progress within the agricultural business needs to be seen in perspective. “We’re coming from a comparatively excessive base as a result of beneficial manufacturing situations in the summertime rainfall areas.”

He added that animal ailments, comparable to avian influenza and foot-and-mouth illness, additionally took its toll on the livestock sectors.

Maree expects agricultural progress to stay damaging in 2024, however GDP to extend by between 1% to 1,2%.

He identified that weather conditions had turn into much less beneficial in the summertime rainfall space as a result of improvement of the El Niño phenomenon, which was related to drought situations in some elements of South Africa.

The Crop Estimates Committee additionally just lately adjusted its summer season crop outlook down by 13,48% year-on-year to 17,4 million tons, as a result of sure areas not receiving enough follow-up rain and extreme warmth following the planting season.

This was regardless of farmers growing their space beneath manufacturing by 1,2% year-on-year to 4,44 million hectares due to beneficial weather conditions on the time of planting.

Different elements that threaten agricultural progress embrace load-shedding and the damaging impression of logistical and port challenges on exports.